Friday, September 16, 2011

Trading Coffee Options Part II

Identifying a "strike" price for your option is a fairly simple process of asking your broker for all of the price variations relative to expiry dates. The strike price can be thought of as a derivative of the volatility and probability relating to the "C".
The costs attached to purchasing options are affected by the amount of liquidity in the market (for coffee the liquidity is low and therefore expensive), the time period related to the contract, and the price volatility (volatility increases the price of the option).

Liquidity or lack of liquidity means the amount of active open interest in a series of option contracts. In practical terms, if you are offering something for sale and there aren't many buyers, the "spread" between the asking price and the bid price increases. This is important in situations where you may want to sell a position quickly and be forced to take a lower price than you paid because of a lack of buyers. This type of loss is referred to as "slippage", or the loss taken on the gap between bid and ask on a quick transaction. Conversely, as the price moves either up or down such that it approaches in the money, the spread between bid and ask narrows as interest spikes. Purchasing options on the "C" may be less attractive due to the fact that there is relatively low open interest in coffee options contracts and the price premium for many is unattractive.

Determining the value or cost of time attached to an option is as simple as identifying options with the same strike price, but different expiration dates and recording the value of the extra time. The more time left on the option, the more time for move to occur to put it in the money, the more expensive the option price is.

Volatility or conversely price stability affect the prices of options as well. Price movements which routinely alter the price of the contract in and out of the money, sometimes several times during the period of the contract, will be much more expensive than options on commodities or shares with stable pricing. Lately coffee has experienced some pretty wild fluctuations in relatively short periods of time and therefore the time premium can be expensive in these situations. Currently, the price premium on a coffee contract costs a premium of $0.10 over/under the "c" with a November expiry. For a $37,500 lb contract, the option will cost approximatley $3,750 before you get in the money. This contract works if we are confident that the price for coffee will either increase or decrease more than 10 cents per pound over the next 8 weeks or so.

Remember, as the contract approaches the expiration date, the value of the contract decreases if it is not in the money with each day. The key when trading options on goods with low open interest, high volatility is to stay on top of the pricing and get out of your position the moment you feel it is in the money with transaction costs plus your target premium. Also, with options, someone either wins or loses on every contract. With each option, there is always a counterparty who is betting the exact opposite of what you believe is going to happen will happen. Don't underestimate the intelligence of your counterparty!
I'll take a week and knock off another post on options trading, next time dealing with the process to place an actual order for purchase or sale.

Saturday, September 10, 2011

The Event

I'm feeling more than a little frustrated lately at the direction the Specialty Coffee Association of America is taking our industry. This post was inspired by a visit last week to our roastery by a Montreal based packaging equipment manufacturer who sang a familiar refrain, "we don't do SCAA anymore because it's not worth it and we're not welcome". This statement reminded me that last year in Houston I had the opportunity to chat with several attendees of the Specialty Coffee Association annual trade show dubbed "The Event". These folks I would characterize as long time members of the SCAA and exhibitors who purchase booth space on the trade show floor to display their products. Their opinions about the quality of the show for exhibitors was uniformly negative owing in their opinion to the SCAA's focus on "vanity hall" where baristas display various coffee preparation techniques in competition. Others suggested that entire categories of exhibitors were considering pulling out of the show due to the lack of support or respect for their segment of the industry. Others still were disappointed in the actual paid attendance once complimentary, exhibitor, attendees below decision maker level, etc numbers were removed. Finally in Houston, the competition area was physically removed from the trade show floor and served to pull attendees away from the paying exhibitors, making matters worse. I believe the fact that the SCAA has received "an offer it can't refuse" relating to the facility in Seattle, makes the revenue stream from exhibitors less a concern going forward and will lead to further alienation of trade floor businesses.

I have been attending SCAA shows for approximately 14 years, and have observed changes that, in my opinion, make the show less of a compelling event for some. Certainly the training available now through SCAA is exemplary and full credit goes to the Professional Development staff. The addition of a comprehensive Instructor Development Program, standardized lesson plan formats and guidelines and engaged volunteers makes this part of the organization stellar and reason alone to attend any SCAA trade show. However, for the business directors and decision makers with established business plans and formats, there are better options and events to direct your resources.

Years ago, every sector of the coffee business was welcome, exhibiting and in attendance. Packaging machinery and products in abundance, many more green coffee brokers, authors, photographers, Chain Stores and Micro Chains, Tin Suppliers, Mints, Candies, espresso and coffee equipment manufacturers to name a few. It is not lost on the allied members and manufacturers who sell to the industry that the voices that are amplified by the SCAA within it's own publications, in executive positions determining policy, and directing the distribution of SCAA resources are invested in promoting the competition barista and the micro lot roaster/importer as the "Face of the Industry". The failure to recognize that most Specialty Coffee customers do not purchase their coffee from competition inspired baristas, and a complete lack of recognition for operator (collective) excellence within the SCAA leaves me wondering how long the organization can exist with such a narrow focus on the individual.

The SCAA itself will deny any bias, and claim that all segments of the industry are welcome. While this may be their intention, in practice what happens is the equivalent of inviting everyone to your house party, but speaking a language that most of your guests don't understand, playing party games they don't know how to play, and making them pay for the beer and nachos. The people at your party who speak the language, and know the games have fun, but the rest of the party goers eventually leave if they feel snubbed, or are not able or interested to learn to play the games.