Monday, March 7, 2011

Coffee Pricing Part II

I wanted to add an interesting update to provide some context for the current coffee market price.
In my last post I indicated that the differentiation between the coffee price valued in USD, and that of Canadian and Euro was the effect that a weak American dollar had on the market. Certainly there has been an increase in the "C", but at least 30% of that can be attributed to the fact that the "C" is valued in USD.
As an interesting bit of information, I've figured out the Price of Coffee in Gold for each of the time periods, to determine how coffee has performed against the standard measure of hedged value versus world currencies.
In 2001, one ounce of gold equalled 376.53 lbs of coffee.
In 2005, one ounce of gold equalled 365.60 lbs of coffee.
In 2010, one ounce of gold equalled 496.24 lbs of coffee.
Today, one ounce of gold equals 518.10 lbs of coffee.

From 2001 to present, the price of coffee stated in terms of gold has fallen 38%. Even at the extreme low price of 2001, coffee was worth more in real value, than it is today at relatively high priced "C".

This is relevant because Gold is perceived to be the measure of secure wealth in the world. Currencies pre-1971 were backed up by vaults filled with the stuff as security against the value of the dollar. The US no longer holds near enough gold to guarantee it's currency value, and instead issues promises to pay. Recent events has made those promises increasingly suspect, which makes gold more valuable versus a declining USD. Pricing coffee versus Gold clearly shows us that although the price is relatively high versus USD, against a standard measure of value like gold, it has actually lost value in the past 10 years, even when comparing a $0.71 market of 2001 to today's $2.76.

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